Don't Quit Your Day Job

Now that the dust is finally settling from the Nuclear War that was the Free Agency bonanza, I'd like us to take one last look back into the past and examine the 2009-2010 season before it forever disappears in the rear-view mirror. Now, I'm not going to dispense any awards for anything that happened on the court. And I'm not even going to doll out accolades for anything player related; rather, I want us to not forgot some of the absolute terrible predictions so-called "experts" espoused at the beginning of the season.

Look, I understand that predicting anything in sports is like getting Mike Bibby to care on defense. It's really, really tough to do. But some of these predictions were so utterly atrocious that looking back from the future, we can easily laugh.

Bibby trying out this thing called "guarding his man."

First up, ESPN's Western Conference Predictions. Ok, sure they got the Lakers at the first seed right. But my dog could've done that. After that? Total crap shoot. ESPN failed to get a single team right. San Antonio, at number 2? Yeah, that's a ludicrously dumb ceiling, guys (overrating the Spurs seemed to be a trend). Then the Hornets at seven!?! Maybe for their chances in the lottery. But by far the worst was the omission of the Thunder. The experts at Bristol had the electrifying Oklahoma City squad ranked below such outfits as the Clippers and Rockets, and placed them just one game better than the Warriors.

Next, their Eastern Conference Predictions. Once again, the incorrectness continues. Sure, they got the Cavaliers right at number 1, but if there's one thing that was established, it was that Cleveland boasted (we can say that in the past tense now, sadly) the best regular season team. They beat all the teams they are supposed to beat, did well on the road, and held serve at home. But when it came to good teams, they folded like a stack of cards. Granted, the experts did nail the top four seeds in the East, albeit in slightly varying orders. The bottom half, though? Not so much. Putting Philly in the playoffs was all kinds of adorable. And omitting the upstart Bucks from the post-season picture entirely was just plain offensive.

Their Rookie of the Year Predictions were also just as bad. See Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings in there? Yup, me neither. Moving along.

Then, for Free Agency predictions, ESPN once again swung and missed. Can't blame the panelists on this one, though. They forgot that LeBron James lacked a spine or any shred of decency.

Another pretty bad prediction.

Finally, the good stuff. The Championship predictions. Of all the experts polled, the most popular choice was the Lakers. But somehow, someway, a majority still thought a team other than the Lakers would take home the Larry O'Brien Trophy. The second most popular team was the Cavs. Here's one of the better quotes from one of the panelists:

• "The Cleveland Cavaliers were the league's most dominant team last season with a 10.0-point differential per 100 possessions. Their probable path to an NBA championship was pushed off course by an Orlando Magic team uniquely suited to exploit their vulnerabilities. Don't count on that happening two years in a row. With the additions of Shaquille O'Neal and some very effective wing defenders, the Cavs have insured that there isn't a system in the league that can hijack their championship hopes in 2009-10."

Hilarously wrong. Now, ESPN wisely removed the name of the author of this quote to avoid embarrassment. Wise choice. But, whoever wrote this clearly had a love of stats and pretended to use them like he knew what he was talking about. The likely culprit? John Hollinger.

Next up, one about the Spurs:

• "Championship-caliber teams don't stick around for a decade anymore, but the Spurs keep surviving. I love the offseason additions for Tim Duncan's team, and trust they'll be a top West seed and go all the way."

Yeeee-ouch. Couldn't be more wrong.

And one about the Magic:

• "Orlando, of course. Take the league's best defense, subtract the overrated Hedo Turkoglu and add Vince Carter to a lineup that already had three All-Stars, and what do you have? A team that's ready to handle Boston (again) and Cleveland (again) and get past a somewhat aging Lakers team (to whom the Magic gave away two Finals games in June)."

"Already had three All-stars"? Please tell me you aren't including Rashard Lewis in that. Please.

Now, these all have been as off the mark as a Dwight Howard free throw. But, I've saved the best for last, from one Mr. Bill Simmons.

"Referencing Teen Wolf in every one of my columns? Now that's a lock."

Let's make one thing clear: I enjoy reading Bill Simmons. I used to love him until I realized that a) he thought Stephen Curry should be ROY over Tyreke Evans because he was "more fun to play with" and b) he gets a lot of mileage by overusing outdated pop-culture references in his writing. But he's an entertaining writer. However, after reading this paragraph, it becomes clear that entertaining is all he is:

• "This particular Spurs team has the right level of appropriate fear: fear of aging and complacency coupled with an appreciation for how fast things can fall apart (thanks to Manu's ankle the past two seasons), and beyond that, the reality that their best player might only have one great season left in him. I am a Spurs junkie. I love reading about them. I love the way they put their rosters together and value chemistry so deeply. I love the way they interact during games (as I've written many times). I just get a kick out of them. And the truth is, this might be their last chance for a dominant season with Tim Duncan leading the way. I think it happens. If only because great basketball players have a habit of somehow finding that one great team. They are my pick to win in 2010. Convincingly"

Convincingly? Really? Oh my. The only thing I'm convinced about now is that the experts really have no idea what they are talking about.