Shoot First, Ask Later

The last two NBA seasons I've been delving heavily into the fantasy basketball scene. I've probably gotten into it to an unhealthy degree, but if I can find something that increases my exposure to basketball, I'm all for it.

I'm not saying I'm a super pro (as a sixth place finish this year shows), but I have picked up a couple tricks along they way. For instance, draft Lebron James first (aren't you glad I'm here?). Another one is pick guys who make three pointers at an impressive clip. Why? A single made 3-pointer helps you in four categories: FG Made, 3-Pointers Made, Total Points, and FG%. Not bad for a single basket, yeah? And the last one are words of wisdom to live by, and helped me salvage my season with an injury plagued roster to back-door my way into the playoffs: if a starter gets hurt, the back-ups numbers will go up. Always.

Examples abound this season. Darren Collison's numbers shot up when Chris Paul went down. Andray Blatche's production saw a marked increase when the Wizards imploded. George Hill got some run when Tony Parker broke his hand. So on and so forth. It's not rocket science why this happens: if a guy who gets 33 minutes and 10-20 shots a game goes down, there will be an offensive vacuum. So naturally, the injured player's teammates should see production go up.

I have no problem with this. I think it's great. Let other guys get a shot in the spotlight. Let them get actual game experience. One problem, though, I do have, are analyst types thinking that, all of a sudden, these players getting more minutes have somehow become drastically better.

I have to disagree. With a few notable exceptions, guys playing at the professional level are good. Not just good, but really, really, really good. They have the athleticism, natural talent, and killer spirit to make them the best of the best. All of them, no matter where they are from, were the Alpha Dogs of the Alpha Dogs. The best guy you know that plays at your local gym? The worst player on an NBA roster is very likely better than him. Unless your local gym are where the Cavs practice, of course.

The whole point of this is that these players aren't getting better. They're just getting the minutes so showcase their talent. So when I hear people talk about how Collison is really developing into a star, or how Blatche is the future of the Wizards, I shake my head. Those guys just happen to take the most shots. Give any player at that level that many touches and shots and I'm sure we'd be discussing that players star potential.

This of course has implications for stars too. For instance, Kobe's scoring average this season is its usual impressive self at 27 points per game. But, he needs 22 shots a game to get that. TWENTY-TWO. Holy crap. That's so many shots. Imagine, for instance, that another athletic wingman like, say, Mickael Pietrus got 22 shots a game. Currently, Pietrus Averages 8.7 points on 7.2 shots a game. For ease of calculation, if we assume he makes shots at the same percentage, and if we assume he took at as many shots as Kobe, he'd average 26.1 points per game on 21.6 attempted field goals. Well, look at that. It's about the same.

Granted, there are a lot of other factors at play here including crunch-time scoring, creating for other teammates, and avoiding double teams and the like, but it's still something to think about.